La versión en español sigue abajo.
Many individuals in the United States celebrate Cinco de Mayo without really understanding the significance behind the holiday; so I thought I’d write a quick explanation of what the holiday means to Mexicans. Cinco de Mayo is simply Mexico’s notice to the world that no matter how difficult it is Mexico will never again allow its sovereignty to be taken away from it.
Such was the arrogance of the French invaders that General Ferdinand Comte de Lorencez, commander of the invading army, had sent a dispatch to his Minister of War declaring that the French were so “superior in race, organization, discipline and morality” that as of that moment he owned the Republic of Mexico, even before firing his first shot.
He did not count on the will of the Mexican people, the leadership of President Benito Juárez and General Ignacio Zaragosa who ultimately forced him to retreat in disgrace from the battlefield.
On May 5, 1862, the French invaders saw firsthand the determination of the Mexican lines as the French soldiers met death at the foot of Loreto each time they tried to submit the Mexican defenders. Three times the French attempted to pierce the Mexican lines until Mexican General Porfirio Diaz forced a humiliating French retreat.
To understand the significance of Mexico’s victory, it is important to remember that the Mexican people had been at war since the 1800’s. Mexico had declared its Independence from Spain in 1810, a war that lasted until 1821. In 1835, the Guerra de Texas, as it is known in Mexico, or The Texas War of Independence, was fought between the Texas rebels and the Mexican Army. That war lasted for a year, until 1836. Then, from 1838 to 1839, the French attempted to intervene in Mexico in a war now known as the Guerra de los Pasteles, or the Pastry War. That was the first French intervention of Mexico.
A complete timeline of Mexican conflicts can be found here.
The American Intervention
Between 1846 until 1861, Mexico and the United States fought two full scale wars and some border skirmishes. In a war that started in 1846 and ended in 1848, Mexico lost over half of its national territory to the United States in what is now referred to as the First American Intervention of Mexico. In 1853, William Walker invaded Mexico in an attempt to establish a colony in Sonora. In 1859 and 1861, Mexican irregulars from Tamaulipas and Matamoros fought the United States Army and Texas Rangers in border skirmishes. In Mexico the border skirmishes are known as the “Primer Guerra de Cortina” for the 1859 skirmishes and the “Segunda Guerra de Cortina” for the skirmishes in 1861.
The Second French Intervention
In 1861, The French, along with Spain and England invaded Mexico. England and Spain withdrew shortly after the invasion of Veracruz. At that time, the French were a World Power with the capability to wage war across the Atlantic with its superior force projection capability. Analogous to today, the French capability to wage war extraterritorially then is similar to the United States’ ability to project a military force to the Middle East today. The French were considered one of the superior armies of the time.
Louis Napoleon Bonaparte, or better known as Napoleon the III, led the French from 1852. This period in French history is known as the Second Republic. Napoleon had embarked on the expansion of France’s sphere of influence across the world. He used Mexico as a launch pad for French control of the Americas.
Meanwhile, Mexican president Benito Juárez had suspended payment on debt service to Britain, France and Spain on July 17, 1861 for two years to allow the country to recover from the massive debt accumulated over the many years of war. In late December of 1861; Britain, France and Spain responded by landing troops in Veracruz.
After negotiations concluded between the belligerents, Britain and Spain withdraw their forces. France, on the other hand, used the debt payment suspension as a pretext to establishing a beachhead in the Americas for Napoleon’s world influence doctrine. The French mobilized towards Mexico City in order to assume control of Mexico.
The “Ejército de Oriente”, composed of about 4,000 soldiers, under the command of General Ignacio Zaragoza, marshaled defensive positions in Puebla in order to repel the 6,000 French invaders. The French army was repelled three times before they retreated in defeat towards Orizaba at 5:00 in the afternoon. This was the first defeat of the French Army in 50 years. Cinco de Mayo began the four-year battle to secure the Mexican borders against an invading army.
During the war, President Benito Juárez established his capital in El Paso del Norte, today’s Cd. Juárez Chihuahua, which was later renamed in honor of him. The French established Fernando Maximiliano of Habsburg as the Emperor of the Second Mexican Empire. By 1867 the French had been expelled and Maximiliano was executed by the victorious Mexicans.
Thus Cinco de Mayo represents the victory of overwhelmed Mexican forces against a well-armed and well-trained invading French army. Cinco de Mayo put countries around the world on notice, that as Mexicans we may differ and bicker among ourselves but when it comes time to defend our national territory we will put our differences aside and assert Mexican sovereignty no matter the cost. On May 5, 1862, the world took notice that Mexico will never again surrender anymore national territory to any invader.
So as you down your beers this Cinco de Mayo, take a moment to raise your beer mugs up high and proclaim; ¡Viva Mexico!
En Español
Cinco de Mayo, es más que una fiesta en estos tiempos tan importantes para México
Este Cinco de Mayo, cuando estemos celebrando la victoria contra los invasores del suelo Mexicano, es importante recordar que este día es cuando dimos aviso a todos los países con interés de imponerse dentro de nuestro país que jamás volveremos a perder un solo centímetro más de nuestro territorio nacional.
Con la arrogancia del imperio antiguo de Europa el general Fernando Comte de Lorencez, dirigente del ejército invasor, comunico a su alto mando que desde este momento se adueñaba de la república mexicana con su “superioridad intelectual, disciplina y ética”.
Solo que no contó con el heroísmo y el coraje de los personajes tan importantes en nuestra historia como la de Don Benito Juárez, los generales Porfirio Diaz y Ignacio Zaragoza entre todos de los que dieron de su esfuerzo, humanidad y en muchas ocasiones de sus vidas pare defender el territorio nacional.
El cinco de mayo de 1862, los invasores franceses se enfrentaron con muerte a la punta de las espadas mexicanas. Tres veces intentaron someter al ejército mexicano hasta que el general Porfirio Diaz los forzó retirarse de la escena de batalla humillados y vencidos.
Para entender el significado de esta victoria mexicana hay que hacer un poco de memoria de nuestra historia como país. En ese tiempo, hay que recordar que el pueblo mexicano tenía años sufriendo la guerra. México sufrió guerra tras guerra desde el momento que declaro su independencia de España en 1810. Una guerra que duro hasta 1821. En 1835, la Guerra de Texas interrumpió al pueblo mexicano de nuevo. En 1838, Francia intento de apoderarse del pueblo mexicano durante la guerra denominada como la “Guerra de los Pasteles”.
Aquí esta una lista de las guerras que sufrió México en su historia.
Las intervenciones norteamericanas
De 1846 hasta 1861, Estados Unidos y México se enfrentaron en dos guerras y varias intervenciones. Entre ellas, México perdió más de la mitad de su territorio nacional durante la primera intervención norteamericana en México. En 1853, el norteamericano William Walker intento tomar Sonora y en 1859 y 1861 se enfrentaron contra el ejército americano y tropas de los Texas Rangers guerrilla mexicana en enfrentamientos ahora conocidos como la Primera y Segunda Guerras de Cortina.
La segunda invasión francesa
En 1861, los franceses, España e Inglaterra invadieron suelo mexicano de nuevo. España e Inglaterra se retiraron un poco después de la invasión. En ese tiempo hay que recordar que los franceses eran una potencia mundial con un ejército altamente equipado y capacitado. En comparación, nuestros tiempos, los franceses tenían el poder militar que hoy tiene Estados Unidos para imponer su deseo en cualquier parte del mundo. Los franceses contaban con uno de los ejércitos más poderosos de esa época.
Louis Napoleón Bonaparte, mejor conocido como Napoleón III era dirigente de los franceses desde 1852. En Francia su imperio es conocido como la Segunda República Francesa. Napoleón soñaba con establecer la influencia francés a través del mundo entero. Con ese fin, se dirigió a México para establecer un punto de entrada para establecer doctrina francés en el continente americano.
Al mismo tiempo, el presidente mexicano, Don Benito Juárez se enfrentaba con una deuda externa sumamente sofocante para el pueblo mexicano. En fin de poder recuperar, Don Benito Juárez suspendió los pagos a la deuda por dos años el 17 de abril de 1861. Para diciembre de 1861, Francia, Inglaterra e España habían invadido Veracruz. Después de negociaciones entre los gobiernos involucrados se retiraron del territorio nacional los ingleses y los españoles. Francia rechazo la paz y su ejército empezó su marcha hacia la capital mexicana con el fin de apoderarse del pueblo mexicano.
El Ejército de Oriente, bajo el comando del General Ignacio Zaragoza se enfrentó contra los invasores franceses en Puebla. Los 4,000 mexicanos defendieron terreno mexicano para impedir el paso a los 6,000 integrantes del ejército francés. Tres veces, los franceses intentaron derrotar al ejército de Zaragoza hasta que a las 5:00 de la tarde dieron marcha hacia Orizaba, derrotados por primera vez en 50 años. Así empezó los cuatro años necesarios para expulsar a los franceses del suelo mexicano.
Durante esos cuatro años, el presidente mexicano se vio forzado a establecer la capital mexicana en el norte del país, primero en la ciudad Paso del Norte, ahora Cd. Juárez y luego en la ciudad de Chihuahua. Los franceses, por su parte, con ayuda de algunos mexicanos, establecieron el Segundo Reino Mexicano encabezado por Fernando Maximiliano. Maximiliano fue derrotado en 1867.
Durante el Cinco de Mayo se celebra la victoria mexicana en Puebla contra un ejército que no había sufrido una derrota en cincuenta años. A la misma vez, México anuncio al mundo que no importa la diferencias internas, entre nosotros, cuando nos enfrenta una amenaza contra nuestro territorio nacional ponemos nuestras diferencias aparte y nos unimos como mexicanos para defender nuestro país sin importancia nada más. El 5 de mayo de 1862, el mundo noto que México jamás volverá a regalar ni un centímetro más de territorio mexicano.
Este Cinco de Mayo, tómense un momento para brindarle al pueblo mexicano su unidad nacional con un grito de ¡Viva México! alegre y lleno de orgullo, especialmente en estos tiempos peligrosos para nuestro país.
Wikileaks and STRATFOR: Mexican/Israeli/Russian/Georgian Conspiracy and Mexican Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), oh and sexual shenanigans
Imagine my surprise when one of the first tidbits to hit cyberspace wrapped all of my major interests into one little morsel for me to enjoy. That little morsel of digital text had me salivating from the very first word. That is, until I realized that it was nothing more than gossip wrapped in a cheesy cloak-and-dagger story plot.
This created a situation where one small blog posting would not do justice to the discussion of this disclosure. So, you will all have to bear with me as I bring you along this journey of sexual intrigue, geopolitics and the Mexican UAV’s that supposedly might have participated in the Georgian-Russian conflict of 2008. Oh, and let’s not forget that Israeli UAVs have supposedly being compromised by the Russians.
Before I get to the juicy parts I think it is important that I set the stage for those that do not necessarily follow geopolitics, intelligence agencies and cyber-activists.
The major protagonists in alphabetical order are:
Anonymous
Anonymous has been making headlines recently through the intervention, disruption and access to private and governmental computer systems and websites. Anonymous is a loose-knit community of computer hackers that sometimes, in mass or in small groups, act in concert with each other to circumvent computer security or intervene on websites. To this date they do not seem to represent a specific agenda and do not seem to espouse a specific doctrine. One of their most recent system interventions was the access and public disclosure of over 5 million internal emails from STRATFOR, an Austin-based private intelligence gathering and analysis firm operated by George Friedman.
STRATFOR
Strategic Forecasting, Inc., or more commonly known as STRATFOR, is a pioneer in information gathering and online distribution of intelligence and analysis of geo-political information, or so I was led to believe. For all intents and purposes, STRATFOR operates as a private intelligence agency, spying and analyzing information for private and governmental entities. STRATFOR was founded by George Friedman in 1996. Friedman is an author and self-described political scientist.
Friedman and his company, STRATFOR are often cited by the media in regards to the ongoing War on Drugs in Mexico. I and many others have questioned their portrayal of the dynamics of the drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) against the empirical evidence on the ground as disseminated and commented on by STRATFOR. In my opinion, STRATFOR’s intelligence briefs, the ones made publically available and those circulated by the media seem to revolve around the worst-case scenario with nothing more than dire-predicting headlines. STRATFOR briefed that Mexico was on the verge of becoming a failed-state in 2008.
With the secretive nature of STRATFOR’s access, gathering and analysis of the data they use to make their assumptions and the necessary need for Mexican and US government security over threat analysis it is difficult to determine how accurate their intelligence analysis is. The unintended access to their work product via Wikileaks should give us an insight into their methods and access to the actionable information they use to create their analysis.
Wikileaks
Wikileaks is best known as the disseminator of information surrounding the US Embassy cables and US Army Private Manning’s ongoing Court Martial in regards to those. Julian Assange is currently fighting extradition to Sweden on a sexual assault charge. Wikileaks is publishing the STRATFOR documents on its website.
The intrigue that is just starting out threatens to significantly change my, and possibly our understanding of private security and intelligence firms, government backed data collection and investigative agencies and reveal to the world a clearer picture of the geopolitics of today’s world. With that in mind and hoping that the intelligence continues to pour in, I will be creating a section on this blog about the STRATFOR morsels I expect to further soon devour. These will be interposed between my continued irreverent commentary and observations of the El Paso political drama that never ceases to amuse.
Is Mexico becoming a weapons exporter? UAVs for Chavez and Georgia?
In August of 2008, former Soviet satellite Georgia preemptively started a war against Russia by shelling a Georgian breakaway province, South Ossetia, in order to put International pressure on the Russians.
According to an email recently released by Wikileaks purporting to be from STRATFOR, from Reva Bhalla to a STRATFOR internal dissemination list, Georgian government officials were looking to purchase Mexican UAV’s in their upcoming war against Russia.
Some readers will remember that a Mexican operated Isreali UAV was lost in El Paso Texas. On December 2010, the world first became aware of Mexican operated unmanned aerial aircraft (UAV) that had been deployed against the drug cartels when a Mexican UAV inadvertently descended into the backyard of an El Paso home. The media has erroneously referred to the uncontrolled descent as a “crash”, but all indications, although unconfirmed, are that the aircraft deployed its emergency parachute when it lost contact with its operator.
On August 2010, the Latin American Herald Tribune reported that the Mexican government had purchased an unknown number of Israeli Hermes 450 unmanned aerial aircraft (UAV) to patrol the Mexican border with the United States. According to the publication, the information was attained from a response to an open records request filed with the Mexican government. The number of UAV’s deployed or purchased was not confirmed, although unconfirmed reports have speculated that at least two aircraft are currently operating. This is the UAV that is presumed to have unintentionally parachuted into the El Paso backyard.
A Mexican company, Hydra Technologies, has been developing and deploying the S4 Ehecatl, which is presumably the one being discussed by the email. The S4 Ehecatl, which according to specifications revealed during the 2007 Paris Airshow, is capable of 8-hour missions at an altitude of 15,000 feet. The Ehecatl has a wingspan of 12 feet (3.7m) and a cruising speed of 38 knots. According to public sources, the Ehecatl is being marketed to the Mexican Federal Police.
The email, disclosed by Wikileaks, goes on to describe a clandestine swap between Israel and Russia whereby Georgian operated Israeli UAVs were compromised by the Russians, therefore rendering them ineffective for the Georgians. This disclosure has many in the intelligence community either confirming their suspicions of Israeli compromised UAVs or asking if this was the case. Regardless, this is the first time the notion of Israeli compromised UAVs has entered the realm of public discussion.
As discussed below, there are many questions regarding the veracity of this information.
A first take on Friedman’s and STRATFOR’s intelligence gathering and analysis.
I am not impressed. For all the public posturing of STRATFOR as a significant private intelligence gathering firm, the initial exposure of their emails shows a company acting as an authority on international security, but in reality is nothing more than a sophisticated news gathering organization selling news. Actionable intelligence requires analysts that understand not only the information they are gathering but also the ability to needle-down into the gem hidden within the extravagant information shared by informant’s whose motives, by their nature, must be understood in order to glean the actionable intelligence from their utterances.
In the specific case of the email reference above (#64027), the author appears to be Reva Bhalla based on the email address information included in the disclosed email. According to a LinkedIn profile under the name of Reva Bhalla, she is the Director of Analysis at Stratfor. According to the profile, Bhalla is a graduate of Georgetown University and her area of expertise is the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Latin America.
From her online picture she is an attractive lady.
Before anyone starts to assume anything, let me explain the relevance of the last statement. Sources of information, especially those cloak-and-dagger sources of clandestine information are usually motivated to open up via money, sex or a need to stay out of jail. This has been true since intelligence gathering became a science.
I am sure it is the same for all males in many countries, but in the case of Mexican males, and yes, I am one of those, a pretty lady creates the need to exaggerate and attempt to please the woman flirting with us. It is part of our culture, although many of us will deny it.
Intelligence analysis requires that we take the masks off and deal with information in its rawest and purest form therefore we must be honest about the information. In the case of the Mexican male I must acknowledge that we are like the peacock which must flutter our feathers to attract the lady in the room.
When I first read the email “INSIGHT – Russia/Israel/Georgia/Mexico – defense deals and swaps” I was intrigued and excited. Here was proof of Mexico’s rightful place in the geopolitical intrigue of the world and its capability. But it bothered me.
The email reads like a school girl email to a friend rather than an intelligence brief for insertion into the data repository for further analysis and integration into the other sources of data. It seemed like gossip. Of course all intelligence is gossip but this just seemed like office gossip between two colleagues rather than intelligence data. The “dude is getting shadier by the day” probably stands out the most.
The email thread makes it clear that the source for Bhalla is a former Mexican police officer who is attending a school in the United States, possibly in the Washington area who is collaborating with Jane’s, a weapons analysis publication publisher. The source is a male who most likely met a lady in a bar. Most likely he fluttered his peacock feathers in order to attract the lady’s attention. So far, this is common tradecraft.
The problem I see is that the plier of information should have the basic knowledge of the topic at hand in order to be able to pry the appropriate information from the target. In the case of this email, and based on this email only, Ms. Bhalla has little or no knowledge of Mexican culture, the language and especially weapon systems.
Bhalla’s email clearly shows this. First, she refers to “6.22 mm rounds” and NATO standard without clearly understanding that the most likely round the source was discussing was the 7.62 mm round. Anyone, with basic understanding of ammunition would have made the point that they may have heard “6.22” but it was clearly either the 7.62, or 5.56 chambered by Mexican security forces, especially after mentioning the Chinese as the source of the ammunition that needed to be replaced.
Why is this important? In order to glean the most effective information from a talkative informant it is important to know enough of the subject matter in order to control the conversation. The information gatherer never knows if there will be another opportunity to gather more information from that source.
The other troubling aspect about the email is that, although Ms. Bhalla lists one of her areas of expertise as Latin America, she clearly does not speak Spanish. In her email, Bhalla refers to “Idra” as a private Mexican company manufacturing UAVs. A Spanish speaker and someone with a rudimentary understanding of weapons systems would have known enough to refer to “Idra” properly by its actual name: Hydra Technologies.
To me the email is clearly gossip from an overzealous analyst supplying information from pure gossip. The source is obviously trying to garner Bhalla’s attention by providing information that is unreliable at best and an outright fabrication at worst. Bhalla, on the other hand, is clearly out of her element and is unable to properly control the conversation to produce actionable intelligence. In the end, it is nothing more than gossip without a foundation from where to glean actionable data from.
For STRATFOR, the loss of 5 million emails, including customer credit card information does not give it the credibility it has created via the careful manipulation of a public persona operating in the nether world of intelligence. As the emails continue to be made public, if the information contained therein continues to show that their sources of intelligence data is nothing more than college kids playing at the spy game then the “analysis” the media relies on to report on the conflict areas of the world needs to be seriously questioned. Right now, STRATFOR looks like nothing more than a façade of intelligence want-to-be attempting to play in the big leagues.
Were Georgian’s looking to deploy Mexican UAV’s in their war against Russia? Highly unlikely. Is it likely that a former Mexican cop would have access to knowledge that Israeli UAV’s have been compromised through a Russian and Israel swap? Very unlikely. In the end, just gossip and nothing more.
Too bad, it would have been cool to be able to write a blog entry detailing Mexican UAV operations in the 2008 Georgian/Russian conflict.